07 - Win probability model

A win probability model could be fitted based on different input features that represent the faced team strengths and generraly applying a regression model with Poisson distribution.

With that we are able to calculate both win probability for specific games and league table position or play-offs rounds.

Check this post as an example: Win probability WC Rusia 2018

Also complementary approaches could be added like the following example for “Copa Libertadores”